Americae Declinatio: Americas Downward Spiral

Sir John Glubb, in his 1978 essay "The Fate of Empires," posited that the average lifespan of empires has been 250 years. This duration corresponds to about eight to ten human generations, with each generation lasting around 25-30 years. Furthermore, he identified an 8-phase pattern that empires typically follow, which includes stages such as conquest, affluence, and decline. He argued that this cycle is influenced by factors, including social, economic, and political dynamics.

In the overarching time of 3,000 years of history, he noted that despite advancements in technology and governance, the life cycle of empires remains remarkably consistent. For instance, he observed that empires like the Roman Empire and the Ottoman Empire although exceptional, followed similar trajectories. They rose to power and eventually started declining within a 250-year timeframe. This pattern of course points us squarely to the United States, which was founded in 1776 and is approaching its 250th anniversary next year. The truth is that the U.S. is entering the decline phase of this cycle, facing challenges such as intense political division, economic and class inequality, and global competition.

The implications of the 250-year cycle are significant for understanding the future of current global powers. As the U.S. hits 250 years, there are concerns about its ability to maintain its status as a world power. As even a casual observer of history can see, no empire can sustain its dominance indefinitely, and the U.S. may need to learn from the experiences of past empires to navigate its challenges currently affecting us.

Phase 1: Bondage to Spiritual Growth – Great civilizations are formed in a crucible. The Ancient Jews were in bondage for 400 years in Egypt. The Christian faith and Church came out of 300 years of persecution. Western civilization slowly emerged from the chaotic conflicts during the decline of the Roman Empire and the movements of often fierce “barbarian” tribes. American culture was formed by the injustices that grew in colonial times. Suffering and injustices cause spiritual growth. Suffering brings wisdom and demands spiritual discipline that seeks justice and moral solutions.

Phase 2: From Spiritual Growth to Indomitable Courage – Having been tempered in the crucible of suffering the ability to endure great sacrifice comes forth. Anointed and ascendant leaders emerge and people are galvanized to courage and sacrifice (including loss of life) to create a better, more just world for later generations. It’s the old adage that people who have little or nothing also have little or nothing to lose. Some are often more willing to live for something more important than themselves and their own pleasure. At this point in a nation’s history a battle has begun, a battle requiring courage, discipline, and other virtues.

Phase 3: From Courage to Liberty – As a result of tempering and determined fighting enemies are incapacitated, liberty and greater justice emerge as a result. At this point a nation comes forth, rooted in the ideals that it fought for just like the Christian Church in the 4th century. In this phase many who led the battle are still alive, and the legacy of those who are not is still fresh in the minds that are. They’ve paid the price with their lives. Heroism and the virtues that created the nation are esteemed. The ideals like loyalty, patriotism and honor are still front-and-center.

Phase 4: From Liberty to Abundance – Liberty ushers in prosperity and greater responsibility because the society is still functioning with the virtues of sacrifice and hard work. Then comes the first danger: Abundance. Abundance and responsibility run together. Abundance can weigh us down and take life out of us while taking on a life of its own. The struggles that tempered prior generations move to the background. Jesus said that man’s life does not consist in his possessions. Such a culture is living on the remnants of earlier sacrifices. People become less willing to make sacrifices. Ideals diminish as the abundance weighs down citizens. The sacrifices and virtues are increasingly distant from collective conscience; the enjoyment of their fruits becomes the focus.

Phase 5: From Abundance to Complacency – Complacency is to be self-satisfied and unaware of serious threats that undermine health and the ability to survive. The attitude of a complacent person is: Everything looks fine, so it must be fine. In reality, foundations, resources, morality, and virtues are all crumbling. As virtues, disciplines, and ideals become more remote, those who raise alarms are labeled by the complacent as “doomsayers” and considered extreme, harsh, or judgmental. This is me. I’ve been warning people that this is the direction we’ve been in for 50 years after the 1960s.

Phase 6: From Complacency to Apathy – The Greek word for apathy is απάθεια (apatheia) and literally means without feeling or without suffering. It refers to a state of mind in which one is not disturbed by any external passions that once animated and inspired people. Due to the complacency of the previous stage, the growing lack of attention to disturbing trends advances to outright dismissal, negligence or even pliability to new damaging ideals and ideologies. People become selfish. Working and sacrificing for others becomes foreign to people's thinking. As the Bible says, hearts grow cold towards others and grow cold to the sacrifices people made in the past (suffering too). Hard work and self-discipline continue to erode. People become lazy.

Phase 7: From Apathy to Dependence – Increasing numbers of people lack virtues and zeal necessary to work and contribute. They become entitled, lazy and parasites hanging on the side of society. The suffering and the sacrifices that built the culture are now a distant memory. The idea of striving and work seem “too hard,” dependence on others grows. A socialist spreading of the wealth philosophy becomes more prevalent and more desirable, especially for those in parasitic relationships with the Government. Collectively society tips wholly into dependence. 

Suffering of any type is intolerable. But virtue and morality are not seen as the solution. This is why we’ve seen a wholesale drift away from Judeo-Christian values in the last few decades. Having lived on the sacrifices of others for years, the civilization now insists that “others” must solve their woes. This accelerates the slide towards socialistic/Marxist philosophy. This creates a growing demand for governmental, collective solutions. This in turn deepens dependence on the State, not personal or family collectives. Family-based sacrifices shift towards communal or centralized government support.

From Dependence Back to Bondage – As dependence increases, so does centralized power. Dependent people tend to become dysfunctional, desperate, disruptive or rebellious and criminal. Seeking a government savior or bailout, they look to strong central leadership. If this is too hard they switch to seeking out relief by taking from others and crime rates skyrocket or they try to escape the growing dysfunction through alcoholism and substance abuse. The centralized power corrupts. The corrupt power of madmen create injustices by an overbearing government. This is the country we are currently living in. As any reader can see, we’re in the last stage of a nation. We’re in the death throes of empire. There are few other answers to explain what is happening. Structure begins to disintegrate. The family, morality and personal virtue that helped build the nation are now effectively replaced by an dark, dehumanized and despotic centralized control, hungry for power. We become slaves to the machine. In the case of the United States, slaves to the military industrial complex.

Americae Declinatio: Americas Downward Spiral

In this way, the nation ends. Not with a bang or war but with a whimper and slow fade. The slow death is erosion from within. Slowly weakening until external enemies can no longer be fended off. The virtues required to fight an enemy internal or external are gone. Again, we see the United States condition today. It is at this point that we are dumped back into the crucible, until suffering and conflict bring about enough of the wisdom, virtue, and courage necessary to begin a new nation that will rise from the ashes. As I’ve so clearly clarified, we are nearing that end.

As a Christian I sit outside this cycle as an observer. Christianity has seen many empires come and go. The Bible saw the Egyptians, Assyrians, Babylonians, Medes, Greek, Romans. Since the Bible was completed we've seen the Ottomans, Vikings, etc. We’ve seen colonial powers like the Spanish, the Portuguese, the French, the British Empire and now we have the American Empire in demise.

What do we learn from history and empire? Simple really, the only true haven of safety is the Church, who received her promise of indefectibility from the Lord (Matt 16:18). 

Matthew 16:18 ~ And I tell you that you are Peter, and on this rock I will build my church, and the gates of Hades will not overcome it

But the Church, too, is always in need of reform and will have much to suffer just like empires or it too will fall like the empires it stands distinct from. Christians survive the changing world because we are not of this world.

We live in dark and dangerous days, but this perspective can help us navigate the darkness ahead of us. We really can’t deny that we are living at the end of an era. It is painful because something we love is dying. But from death comes forth new life. Just as Christ rose from the grave and has outlasted every empire’s rise and fall. We as Christians will outlast the empires too.